Berlin, July 2023. Author: Benno Bock
We were able to observe this impressively during COVID: In the years 2020-22, cycling as a mode of transport experienced a significant tailwind. The Bicycle Monitor 2020 reported that 25% of people in Germany cycled significantly or slightly more often in June 2020 than in the previous year. This is also confirmed by data shared via fitness apps such as Strava. They show a huge increase in cycling in the COVID years. The potential appears even greater: demand for bicycles rose by almost 10% in 2020.
Anyone trying to buy a new bike during this time had to be prepared for waiting times of up to a year - due to high demand, but also supply bottlenecks for individual parts. There were numerous reasons for "switching bikes": fresh air and a 1.5 metre distance were included on the bike, leisure activities were only possible to a limited extent and health was an acute issue. The bicycle was used significantly more often for short, necessary journeys, but also for leisure purposes.
There is no doubt that the pandemic has brought many more and new users to cycling as a mode of transport. But the question is: Are the passionate cyclists of 2020/21 still firmly in the saddle today? And to what extent is a progressive cycling policy in these cities helping to make cycling an attractive mode of transport and leisure even post-COVID?
Werfen wir hierzu einen Blick auf die aktuellen Daten mit Fokus auf deutsche Großstädte. Our analysis is based on Google's mode shares and the index values of the ADFC Cycling Climate Test.
This look at the Google data for bicycle share in the modal split of the 40 major cities in Germany reveals that Bicycle use has increased on average even after Covid (2022-today) compared to the pre-COVID years (2018 and 2019).
This development was particularly positive in cities that had a lot of catching up to do in terms of cycling infrastructure before COVID, such as Cologne, Wuppertal, Stuttgart and Dortmund. This positive development of the bicycle share in the modal split in the comparison period is also confirmed with impressive clarity by a household survey conducted by the city of Cologne: according to this study, the "share of cycling has increased by 7 percentage points to 25% since 2017". This means that "the bicycle is now used just as frequently as the car".
Although this effect strength cannot be found in the Google data, the trend is confirmed: According to Google user data, the cycling mode share rose from around 7.1% in 2018 to 8.7% in 2022, which corresponds to an increase of 1.6 percentage points or 22% in relative terms. Strikingly, only the major Saxon cities of Dresden, Leipzig and Chemnitz show a declining cycling trend in this comparative period.
Firstly, the similarities: For all the cities analysed, the graphs show a boom in bike share for 2020. For some cities, the increases are larger ("jumps"), for others smaller. If we now include the year 2021 in the analysis, however, different developments emerge, which can be divided into two type classes:
Type 1: Zig-Zag Upwards
Cities with a low cycling share (< 6%, Krefeld with 8.6%) in 2018 also tend to achieve increases in 2022 compared to the previous year.
Type 2: Corona Peak
The cities show a peak in the cycling share in 2020 and 2021, while the share in 2022 is again decreasing compared to 2021.
Type 3: Type „Münster“
Münster is simply unique when it comes to cycling and shows a consistently high demand, which is why we are dedicating a separate category to the city.
Detailed analysis of the development of the bicycle share 2018-2022
(2018 indexed to 1)
The "zig-zag" type is mainly found "deep in the west" - the Pott (Bochum, Dortmund, Duisburg, Essen, Gelsenkirchen, Oberhausen), Bergisches Land (Wuppertal) as well as Bielefeld, Kassel, Krefeld and Mönchengladbach can be assigned to this type. According to Google data, these cities were characterised before Covid (2018/19) by the fact that bicycles were rarely taken out of the basement (modal split shares < 6%). In Wuppertal, we were able to report the lowest value: 1.5% bike share in 2018. In 2020, the bike share increased, while in 2021 it fell again slightly. For cities of this type, however, we can happily say that after the pandemic in 2022, there will still be a net increase in the cycling share despite fluctuations. In 2022, the use of bicycles increased by 20% to 60% compared to the 2018 share; in Wuppertal even by over 70%.
We can only speculate about the reasons for this zigzag course with 2022 values above pre-corona levels. In any case, a correlation between a positive cycling climate on the one hand and high levels of cycling on the other (for example, by comparing the Google data with the ADFC cycling climate index) does not appear to be causal: once again, the zigzag category includes cities that are not generally considered to be particularly bicycle-friendly. These "catch-up cities" still have a very poor cycling climate, but nevertheless recorded above-average growth in the cycling share during the period under review.
Bicycle share of modal split 2022 compared to the ADFC cycling climate index
Development of the bicycle share 2018-2022 compared to the ADFC cycling climate index
In the case of COVID peak cities, Google data shows that the gains during the pandemic could not be maintained. It would be worth looking at this development in detail, as it affects almost all major cities. This trend is likely to be exacerbated by the less progressive cycling policies of some cities, for example most recently in Berlin. Münster simply remains at a high level. It feels like the world can end and the plus-minus 20% in the cycling capital of Germany will not change much. But this observation is also remarkable, because one could have imagined that in this city, where cycling as a mode of transport is so well established, the pandemic could also lead to further share gains on top.
Perhaps it is indeed the case that the pandemic has given a new lease of life to cycling, particularly in cities where it had previously been largely forgotten as a mobility 'alternative'. In view of the supposedly independent development of the general conditions in the municipalities, one could say somewhat polemically that measures such as expanding infrastructure and the cycling network or improving safety and comfort (all survey categories of the ADFC for its Cycling Climate Index) are not so urgent. However, the reverse is true: the need for action is all the greater in zig-zag type cities, as they run the risk of slipping back to pre-corona levels in terms of cycling share in two to three years. That would be fatal at a time when local authorities are in danger of missing their climate targets, particularly in the transport sector.
The data was collected for the 40 most important German cities over a period of five years.
Catchment